Archive for the ‘Russia’ Category

Weekly Links

Down to Earth

The next SpaceX resupply flight to ISS will now be on June 28.

NASA’s “Europa Clipper” mission, which will explore the icy moon of Jupiter, has moved on to development phase.

US Senator from Texas John Cornyn visited mission control last week.

In Orbit

For the rocket junkies, the first launch since June 5th occurred today. The ESA Earth-observing satellite Sentinel-2 launched from French Guiana just a little while ago as I write this. There are no press releases up about the successful launch yet, so here is the Wikipedia page about the mission. Russia is launching a reconnaissance mission on a Soyuz rocket tomorrow, and then there is the SpaceX launch next Monday (see Wikipedia page 2015 in spaceflight for launch schedule).

On Thursday, ISS flight control teams commanded a reboost burn in order to slightly changing the station’s orbit. This is done to make sure that upcoming rendezvous events, like the next Soyuz launch and docking in July, happen when and where they are planned.

Robonaut 2, which lives aboard the ISS, was named the 2014 Government Invention of the Year (US).

New high definition videos of cities, filmed from the ISS, were released by UrtheCast. From 200+ miles up, you can see cars moving on streets and boats on rivers. More than that though, I think I like watching the buildings “move” as the perspective shifts at 17,500 mph.

The Planetary Society’s LightSail solar sailing test re-entered Earth’s atmosphere last Sunday, June 13th. Their next test launch will be late in 2016.

Roscosmos has announced that Sarah Brightman’s empty seat on Soyuz TMA-18M later this year will be filled by a cosmonaut from Kazakhstan.

Scott Kelly is doing a great job still posting a great variety of beautiful images from ISS on Twitter all by himself. Here is a sampling:

Around the Solar System

ESA’s Philae lander, which has been hibernating on comet 67P since November, has woken up! Data was received by the Rosetta orbiter on June 13 and 14, prompting the mission team to start making plans for when they gain a more solid link with the probe.

Scientists have discovered methane in Martian meteorites (pieces of Mars that came to Earth as a meteorite), thus confirming and deepening the mystery around the methane that has been detected at Mars by various spacecraft.

Check out this epic trailer for the upcoming rendezvous of the New Horizons spacecraft at Pluto:

Weekly Links

Down to Earth

Astronaut Nicole Stott has retired from NASA. She flew to space on Discovery twice with one mission being a long duration stay at the ISS.

The Canadian Space Agency has committed to their partnership in the ISS through 2024. This means that their two unflown astronauts, Jeremy Hansen and David Saint-Jacques, will get to fly expeditions to the station.

In Orbit

Half of the Expedition 43 crew will finally return to Earth this week aboard their Soyuz TMA-15M spacecraft. This will start Expedition 44 with a 3-man crew of Padalka, Kelly, and Kornienko. NASA TV will cover the undocking from ISS on Thursday morning, June 11. The undocking was delayed last month due to the launch failure of an unmanned Progress spacecraft. Due to the extended mission, Samantha Cristoforetti now holds the record for the longest spaceflight by a woman.

On Friday, June 5, a Russian military satellite launched on a Soyuz 2a.1 rocket. This launch is notable because it is the first flight of a Soyuz rocket since the launch failure of the Progress spacecraft. Flights of unmanned Progress and manned Soyuz spacecraft to ISS both launch on the Soyuz family of rockets.

Speaking of Soyuz, check out this awesome timelapse from the TMA-16M docking to ISS earlier this year.

The Planetary Society has confirmed via telemetry that their LightSail’s solar sail has deployed. No photos or video available yet.

Here’s another cool video from a GoPro mounted to the inside of a Falcon 9 payload fairing after a recent launch. The video starts after the fairing has already separated from the rocket.

Around the Solar System

A new analysis of Hubble Space Telescope data shows that at least two of Pluto’s small moons (Nix and Hyrda) are tumbling unpredictably. Here is a simulation:

Weekly Links

Down to Earth

Another SpaceX Dragon capsule completed its mission with a splashdown in the Pacific on Thursday, May 21st. Their next ISS mission is scheduled for late June.

NASA has certified SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket to launch “medium risk” science missions.

Speaking of SpaceX, it looks like I forgot to post videos from their successful pad abort test earlier in May. Here is the original video as well as a new video from onboard the capsule, which is a must watch!

Congress has been doing a lot of space and NASA related work in their current session. The House Appropriations Committee has a markup that includes some details for NASA. Parabolic Arc has the breakdown.

In Orbit

There were two launches in the past two weeks, one successful and one not so successful. First, on May 16th, a Russian Proton rocket launched from Baikonaur with a Mexican commercial satellite did not deliver the payload to orbit. The last time a Proton rocket failed was about a year ago. They had had 6 successful launches between these most recent two failures.

The good news is that on Wednesday, May 20th, a United Launch Alliance Atlas 5 launched from Florida on a flawless flight that delivered the Air Force’s secret X-37B spaceplane and also a fleet of ride-along cubesats.

Among the cubesats on the launch was the awesome LightSail mission from the Planetary Society. The citizen-funded mission is a technology demonstration mission of solar sailing. The current mission is to demonstrate that the sail can be unfolded in orbit. A later mission in 2016 will actually go to a high enough orbit to use light from the sun to steer. You can follow the mission here and contribute to their funding here.

On May 15th, a glitch on the space station caused a reboost, or orbital trajectory correction burn, to be cancelled. Mission controllers were able to turn the plan around and get a good reboost a couple of days later though. Way to go team! (I was on vacation in Austin, so I was not involved)

Because of the changes to the ISS mission schedule (Soyuz TMA-15M crew not coming home for a few extra weeks), the mission control team had the opportunity to come up with some “get aheads” to take care of while there are still 6 people on ISS. The result is that later this week we will be executing the “PMM relocate”, or moving the large logistics module from one place on ISS to another, to free up a new docking port. This animation should help:

This is the first large module relocation like this since the end of the Space Shuttle program. The activities will be covered on NASA TV this Wednesday, May 27th.

Here’s the view through the Node 3 forward hatch where PMM will be berthed:

Around the Solar System

ESA’s Rosetta spacecraft is still orbiting comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko.  Recently they released some pictures showing some boulders that appear to be “balancing” on their ends, due to the strange gravity field. The direction of “down” is highly dependent on your location on this strangely shaped object, causing configurations that would not be possible on a round world.

Here’s a new higher resolution view of the “bright spots” on Ceres.

Here’s a video of the sun setting on Mars, in real-time, as recorded by the Curiosity rover on Mars (via the Planetary Society).

Weekly Links

Down to Earth

Ok, politics out of the way first. A committee in the US House of Representatives recently marked up a version of a budget bill for NASA that funds the agency at healthy levels but takes a bunch of money from Earth science and gives it to the manned exploration programs. Here is Administrator Charlie Bolden’s official statement on the bill.

Dr. Dava Newman, of MIT, has been confirmed by the US Senate as the new deputy NASA administrator.

SpaceX will conduct their first Pad Abort Test of the manned version of their Dragon capsule on Wednesday. Details of the test can be found here. The unmanned test will be streamed live on NASA TV. Here are some pictures of the Dragon on the pad waiting for the test.

Also, here is a new awesome picture from the failed droneship landing of the SpaceX Falcon 9 booster last month.

Blue Origin tested their New Shepard vehicle on April 29. The launch got them very close to space, only a few miles short of the Karman Line. Here is a video they released of the test.

Mark Kelly will appear on Celebrity Jeopardy! later this month.

The Adler Planetarium in Chicago is currently running a special exhibit about Apollo 13.

In Orbit

SpaceX successfully launched their 5th flight of the year, launching a comm satellite for Turkmenistan on April 27th.

On April 28, a Soyuz rocket carrying an unmanned Progress resupply craft launched from Kazakhstan, headed for the ISS. Unfortunately, a problem occurred at or near separation from the upper stage and the vehicle spun out of control. Mission controllers in Russia were not able to recover the spacecraft and it is expected to crash back to Earth this week. NASA and its partners have a plan for continued logistical support of the space station without the Progress (SpaceX is launching another resupply very soon) and Russia is conducting an internal investigation.

Meanwhile, up on the ISS, the crew has some distractions to keep them from thinking about the logistical challenges. They have installed their brand new espresso machine (or ISSpresso) and also setup a new projector movie screen.

Sam recorded a quick tour of her “hygiene corner” on the ISS.

Around the Solar System

NASA’s MESSENGER probe crashed into Mercury (deliberately) last week, after a successful 4 year orbital mission.

Check out these awesome new images of Pluto from the New Horizons probe… getting closer!

Because its Cool

You can always count on the Onion to make fun of NASA in the best way possible.

Book Review: Altered Space Series by Gerald Brennan

When I bought myself my first e-reader last month, a small wi-fi enabled Amazon Kindle, I was looking forward to all the common advantages expounded by their advocates: portability, lower book prices, etc. I also was hoping to supplement the constant LCD screen time I find in my life these days with something more relaxing. I was a nerd growing up and used to read constantly (often at the expense of my social life or studies). These days I find myself spending hours staring at an iPhone or computer screen keeping up with my favorite blogs, and the stack of new books beside my bed growing larger. What I did not expect was that my Kindle would open up a whole new genre of fiction.

Amazon knows me very well – recommending each new space memoir as it is released (many of which are still in that unread pile beside my bed, including last year’s Sally Ride and Neil Armstrong biographies) – and as soon as I registered my new Kindle to my account, I started getting Kindle Store recommendations as well. On the first page was a short story that caught my eye immediately: Zero Phase – Apollo 13 on the moon.

I had heard of alternate history fiction before, like Harry Turtledove’s Guns of the South series, which was always in the Sci-Fi/Fantasy aisle that I spent hours in at Borders as a teenager. But Brennan’s alternate history of “NASA’s finest hour” requires no time travel. In fact, I am not sure which category of the bookstore it should be placed. Zero Phase is a meticulously researched thought experiment based entirely in reality. The only difference between the real saga of Apollo 13 and Brennan’s story is a fateful difference in timing: what if the accident happened after reaching lunar orbit? Would they still have made it home alive?

Intriguing, right? Zero Phase, at only about 100 pages, is a fast and exciting entry into what for me was a hidden genre: alternative spaceflight history. My Kindle is now full of short story and novel titles with the same spirit: Recovering Apollo 8, Gemini 17, One False Step, STS-136, Launch On Need… most I have yet to read. Maybe most of them are poorly executed, which could explain the genre’s quiet existence? But the first two entries in the Altered Space series are an engrossing ride for any lover of space history. After finishing Zero Phase I also quickly devoured Brennan’s second story, Public Loneliness, which chronicles a solo circumlunar flight by Yuri Gagarin.

Both stories are written in the first person and don’t waste any time on exposition. Zero Phase opens with Jim Lovell and Fred Haise together in their Lunar Module (LM), already floating free of the Command Module (CM), moments from beginning their descent burn. Brennan has a knack for turning tedious technical details into a story. The prose is dense with a wealth of research into the sequence of events of a powered lunar descent and preparation for a surface EVA. But mixed in with the facts is an intriguing view into the character of an Apollo commander put into an unusual situation.

Brennan performed his research with Jim Lovell’s consent and help and it certainly would not be the thought-provoking read that it is without the fictional but believable voice of narration from Lovell. The story moves in a fast pace from descent, to EVA prep, through the accident, and then preparation for an emergency ascent from the lunar surface – each piece true to actual NASA procedure. But mixed in are periods of flashbacks or commentary from this fictional Lovell that do as good a job as Tom Hanks in the film Apollo 13 of creating a sympathetic character.

You may not get the answer you are looking for at the end of Zero Phase. The story ends as abruptly as it starts (no hints on whether it is a happy ending or not) and leaves you excited enough to read more that you will quickly go and download Public Loneliness, the slightly longer Gagarin story.

Public Loneliness is a different story from Zero Phase in many ways. For one thing, it is going to be a much less familiar setting for most readers, given that Zero Phase involves characters and events from one of the most beloved space movies of all time. The character of Gagarin himself is a bit jarring. Based on a legendary Soviet hero long dead, Brennan likely had a harder time researching for this story, including teasing the facts from fiction in the various biographies (and Gagarin’s autobiography). Brennan takes an interesting tact in his fictional tale and what seems as an honest narration from Gagarin is sprinkled with hints that he isn’t being completely honest, that you may be reading a propaganda piece with half-truths.

Gagarin’s story starts atop a Proton rocket ready to launch towards to moon, but spends as much time on flashbacks as the circumlunar flight itself. Having not read much on Gagarin previously myself, these parts were in some ways more interesting to me. The fictional mission that is the subject of the story is less interesting than in Zero Phase because it is somewhat more fanciful. The nature of his flight and the problems that arise are imagined by Brennan, while in Zero Phase, a known problem merely takes place later in the mission.

Public Loneliness is an exploration of what it must have been to be a hero in the USSR – so much in the public eye but with your true nature hidden from even those closest to you. Did he really buy into the propaganda or was he just doing his job? Despite these interesting digressions into unanswerable questions about personality, Brennan still manages to focus the story on a realistic adventure aboard a Soviet spacecraft that almost was. Like in Zero Phase, portions of the book focus on technical procedures – like doing a trajectory correction burn on the way home from the moon – that are true to Soviet design while also creating exciting tension for the reader.

Again, I highly recommend Zero Phase to all fans of spaceflight history, especially if the Apollo Program and Apollo 13 are exciting to you. Public Lonelines is not as quick a read, but is just as intriguing a “what if” story, not only because of the extensive research done in its writing, but because of the fictional voice of a long-dead hero jumping off the pages. If nothing else, Gerald Brennan’s first two entries in what will hopefully be a continuing series will get most space geeks addicted to this new genre of alternate history story. Happy reading!

You can buy Zero Phase in Kindle or paperback editions here. You can buy Public Loneliness in Kindle or paperback editions here.

2014 in review – Part II

This is the second in a series of posts reviewing the year 2014 in spaceflight. Here is a link to Part I.

If you read my blog it’s because you are a lover of space, or you are my mom (hi mom!). So I assume you are not offended by the limited focus of this small slice of the internet. There are of course other things going on in the world besides rockets launching and people flying in space. And even I admit that in many cases those things are more important. For instance, the January 7th terrorist attack on French satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo commanded the world’s attention, and rightly so. Such a tragic and visible event is an important moment in the history of our culture – the way we choose to respond says something about how we value our free speech (or not).

The year of 2014 had its share of world events that command more attention than what I write about in this blog. From the threat of ISIS in the middle east, the winter olympics in Sochi, Russia, Ebola virus outbreaks in West Africa, the FIFA World Cup in Brazil, and the normalization of US-Cuba relations, it was a busy year (it’s nice to see the Rosetta comet mission on some lists of major world events).

In the same way that my space blog almost completely ignores these events to stay on point, I think the space community at large tends to insulate itself from the outside world. As you might imagine, this can have its downsides. The world is connected, and as much as we want, the fun things we do in space are affected by the rest of the world. Fans of NASA know this as they watch the yo-yo-ing of NASA’s slice of the federal budget over the years. I think 2014 drove this lesson home in a way fans of spaceflight hadn’t been expecting. When Russia invaded Crimea in late February, most space fans weren’t thinking of a connection. We were busy talking about Orbital Sciences’ successful cargo mission to ISS or looking at pictures of SpaceX’s new rocket with legs. It took until April for “reality” to catch up with us.

Part II – Of trampolines and rockets

In early April, the US state department instructed NASA to cut all contact with Russia. This would of course be very concerning – and hard for the space community to tune out – except for that the ISS program was exempted. The ISS of course being the one major ongoing collaboration between our two space programs. The only other example I can think of is that NASA and Roscosmos are both involved in the ESA-led ExoMars mission.

Things really got interesting when Dmitri Rogozin, Russian Deputy Prime Minister, tweeted “After analyzing the sanctions against our space industry, I suggest to the USA to bring their astronauts to the International Space Station using a trampoline.” Most Americans wouldn’t have even heard about it – after all, it was tweeted in Cyrillic – except it was too pithy a jab to go unnoticed by American media. In light of the geopolitcal tensions between our nations that had been brewing since February, it was a juicy new angle – Russia might not let American astronauts fly on their Soyuz. It didn’t matter that most Americans hadn’t heard of Rogozin before, if he was saying that he would cut America off from the ISS, it must mean he could. He said it on Twitter, after all.

It seemed that although the US had exempted the ISS program, Russian officials weren’t taking it off the table as a political chess piece. Rogozin’s anger stemmed from the fact that he was individually targeted in the recent sanctions from the US against Russia for their actions in Ukraine. As ABC News reported,

The sanctions freeze any assets under American jurisdiction and prevent American banks from doing business with the named individual, essentially freezing them out of the international banking system. The sanctions also impose a ban on their travel to the United States.

As Deputy Prime Minister, Rogozin is responsible for the entire Russian space program, including the state-owned corporation NPO Energomash, which produces the RD-180 rocket engine used by the American company United Launch Alliance (ULA) to launch US Department of Defense satellites with the Atlas V rocket… see where this is going?

However, nowhere in the sanctions against Rogozin are the companies and agency’s he manages directly called out. Business was going on as usual in the space industry up to this point (the NASA ban on Russian cooperation doesn’t apply to a private company, ULA, buying rocket engines). So, the question still stands, what set off Rogozin to author the trampoline tweet?

Enter Elon Musk and his company SpaceX, whose lawyers filed a lawsuit against the government (specifically, the U.S. Air Force) challenging a 36-rocket “block buy” contract with ULA. The main premise of the suit was that the contract was unfair and lacked competition (meaning of course, that SpaceX did not have a chance to offer a bid). Among other statements at the press conference announcing the suit, Musk is quoted as saying (from SpacePolitics.com):

How is it that we’re sending hundreds of millions of US taxpayers’ money at a time when Russia is in the process of invading Ukraine? It would be hard to imagine that Dmitry Rogozin is not benefiting personally from the dollars that are being sent there. On the surface of it, it appears that there’s a good probability of some kind of sanctions violation.

It seems that Elon Musk stoked the fire here, complaining that ULA’s use of the RD-180, a powerful engine built and sold by NPO Energomash, should not be allowed during this time of geopolitical tension with Russia. Hard to argue with his logic, isn’t it? A few days after the lawsuit was filed and Elon Musk’s press conference, Rogozin posted his famous tweet. The next day, a U.S. Court of Federal Claims issued an injunction saying that ULA could not purchase more RD-180 engines from NPO Energomash for Department of Defense rocket launches, citing the sanctions against Rogozin. Your move Dmitri.

How is it that Elon Musk, with his 12-year-old rocket company, had amassed enough influence to directly affect international relations between two of the biggest world powers? Granted, Musk is a billionaire, but his company is just a rocket company, not a media conglomerate or oil company, the traditional ways to have political influence as a rich guy. Founded in 2002, you wouldn’t think that SpaceX has a huge share of the world launch market. They have only 19 launches under their belt (a few of which were failures); compare that to the 14 successful launches from ULA just in 2014[1]. A big part of SpaceX’s quick rise surely comes from the intriguing personality of Elon Musk, whose vision and ideas capture the imagination of the young generation. His tenacity and commitment to his dreams make it hard to root against him – his three current big ventures (SpaceX, Tesla, and Solar City), if successful, seem to have a clear benefit for society. But this really only explains the cult of SpaceX, not its influence on a political level. To understand why SpaceX is in such a position of influence takes a revelation about the “launch services sector” (or, the rocket business), that I don’t think most people understand; I don’t think I got it until last year either.

Not to get too technical, but the revelation becomes clear with just a little bit of Wikipedia research. Forgive me for making you look at a data table, but I think it tells the story better than a bunch of links. Let’s say you work for Iridium, the satellite phone service company, and you need to buy a rocket to launch a new satellite. If your satellite weighs around 689 kg, then there are only 21 types of rockets in the world that have the power, and a lot of them aren’t for sale. Here’s the list:

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Source: Wikipedia article “comparison of orbital launch systems”

The first thing that should jump out at you is that there are only three companies from the United States that can launch medium-sized satellites. Fortunately for the folks at Iridium, their satellites are not military, and the company has utilized American, Russian, and even Chinese rockets to build their global sat-phone network.

In another scenario, you work at the Pentagon and need to find a large rocket to launch a secret spy satellite that weighs between 2,000 and 3,000 kg. Not only do your options get more limited (the Indian GSLV and Orbital Minotaur fall off the list, among others) but you are going to have to use an American company. You won’t be allowed to ship a secret satellite out of the country for launch, obviously.

So now your options are down to the three American companies, all of which have rockets that can launch your big spy satellite. However, if our scenario occurs before 2008, before the first Falcon 9 or Antares flight, there was only one choice – ULA. This is the revelation that 2014 made clear to me. We are 50 years into the “space age” but our grasp on space is hanging on by one company’s monopoly and just a few rocket designs. Until the Falcon 9 and Antares rockets, every major government launch – NASA, Air Force, NOAA, or other military – was on either a ULA rocket (or predecessors), or a Space Shuttle. If space is the frontier, then ULA is Union Pacific at Promontory Point.

So, three choices is pretty good, right? It’s better than we get in our presidential elections here in the US. Well, the problem is that although 2008 is 7 iPhone versions ago, it is very recent in terms of the space industry. As of April 2014, Orbital Sciences was not pursuing military payloads and SpaceX had not yet received certification from the USAF for their Falcon 9 version 1.1 rocket. ULA was the only game in town for the Pentagon, but SpaceX expected that to change soon, as they had successfully launched the CRS-3 mission to the ISS on April 18th, the all-important third flight needed as part of the certification process. The Russian sanctions and push back from Rogozin could not have been happening at a better time for SpaceX, who appeared to be on the verge of becoming a real direct competitor to ULA. SpaceX is an American company, using American-built rocket engines, seen to be on the verge of being able to fully replace America’s areas of dependence on Russia in space. Keep in mind that the Atlas V was also in the pipe to be the launch vehicle for both Boeing and Sierra Nevada if they were to be awarded commercial crew contracts to the ISS. It seemed everything about the US launch sector was wrapped up in this issue. You can bet Musk was going to take advantage of it.

The story didn’t end on April 30th with the injunction against he RD-180 engine. That should be obvious from the way Rogozin responded to Elon Musk’s comments days before. Unfortunately for SpaceX’s political goals, the injunction against the RD-180 engines was lifted by the court about a week later. Just as things were seeming to thaw out, Rogozin hit Twitter again.

Russia is ready to continue deliveries of RD-180 engines to the us only under the guarantee that they won’t be used in the interests of the Pentagon.”

Roscosmos doesn’t plan to continue cooperation with the US on the ISS after 2020

It may be tempting to dismiss Rogozin’s comments as just posturing on Twitter. However, they came after the topics were discussed at more length at a Russian press conference, and led directly to debate in the U.S. Senate and a letter from Congressmen to NASA Administrator Charlie Bolden questioning how he plans to deal with these threats. It just goes to show that what’s most important is who says something, not how. And although a National Reconnaissance Office payload launched on an Atlas V on May 19 with no apparent political repercussions, Rogozin’s inflammatory remarks had done their job. An “RD-180 Study Group” was busy investigating the impacts of a potential loss of the RD-180 engine, which recommended allocating funds to develop a new engine. This would turn into a funding debate for the rest of 2015. Ultimately, the 2015 budget passed in December included $220 million to start designing an RD-180 replacement.

In the meantime, over at NASA, things never got much more heated than they were back in April and May. In fact, in August there were reports out of Russia from Roscosmos officials that ISS would likely be operated past 2020. But the “trampoline tweet” was ingrained in the community’s mind. Fortunately, optimism was available later in the year when NASA announced that the Commercial Crew Transportation Capability (CCtCap) contracts would go to Boeing for the CST-100 and SpaceX for the Dragon V2. It’s no surprise that SpaceX was included as one of the remaining two options – if NASA had gone with both Boeing and Sierra Nevada then NASA astronauts would be flying atop Atlas V’s starting in 2017, powered by RD-180 engines. Sierra Nevada immediately protested the award, but the protest was recently thrown out in January 2015.

Optimism turned to shock when on October 28th an Orbital Sciences Antares rocket, carrying cargo to the ISS, exploded spectacularly just seconds after liftoff.

First moments of Antares explosion (via Spaceflight Now, image courtesy NASA)

If you remember from our earlier chart, the Antares is the other large US rocket powered by foreign technology. The first stage engine for the Antares is the AJ-26, which is really just the Ukranian NK-33 imported by Aerojet Rocketdyne and refurbished. These imported engines were literally built decades ago, but are an affordable and well-built option. The seemingly excessive use of Russian or Ukranian engines in the US launch sector isn’t for nothing – the Soviets were darn good at building rocket engines, and that expertise has continued to today.

Earlier in the year an AJ-26 blew up on a test stand, but a successful launch of a mission to ISS in July eased everyone’s concerns. Things seemed to be going well for “commercial space” – SpaceX had recently launched their sixth and final Falcon 9 flight of the year – but everyone immediately thought of that old Soviet NK-33 engine the moment they saw the Antares rocket raining down in flames.

The loss of that Antares rocket unfortunately will be the lasting memory of 2014, a year of uncertainty and debate for rocket companies in the US. While Orbital Sciences has announced a path forward, it doesn’t help answer many of the questions raised by events of the past year. Orbital announced in December that it would fly at least its next ISS resupply mission on an Atlas V (yes, that Atlas V) while it works on a plan to replace the aging AJ-26 engines on its own Antares rocket. And finally, in January 2015, Orbital announced it had made a deal with NPO Energomash (yes, that NPO Energomash) to purchase RD-181 engines to power future versions of the Antares, hopefully with a first flight sometime in 2016.

So you can see the tricky spot the industry is left in at the beginning of 2015. Despite Russia not being a political ally of the United States, Russian rocket engines continue to be an important workhorse for American launches – both military and civil – and operations of the ISS cannot continue without Russian cooperation (by design). The good news is that the issues from 2014 are mostly reasons just to be cautious and concerned about the future, and to lay plans accordingly. No scary outcome, like an actual embargo against NASA astronauts flying on a Soyuz, seems at all likely. ISS operations continue as always, and those of us working on the program have not seen any real signs that that won’t continue for the life of the space station. Atlas V rocket launches – powered by Russian RD-180 engines – continue apace with no signs of stopping. In fact, an Atlas V will launch from Florida tomorrow night with the MUOS-3 reconnaissance payload.

In 2015, the Falcon 9 rocket is expected to achieve Air Force certification, and hopefully the ongoing lawsuit that SpaceX started in April of last year will be resolved. Will SpaceX win and break the monopoly held by ULA? Also, the next phase of the ISS commercial cargo contract will be awarded by NASA. Will the award go to SpaceX and Orbital Sciences to maintain the status quo? Or will Orbital’s launch vehicle uncertainty open the door for a new player like Sierra Nevada? Either way that contract goes, the only fully domestic option available to NASA seems to be SpaceX. All of these questions involve SpaceX in one way or another and the answers will color the future of the rocket launching business in America.

Screen shot 2015-01-19 at 8.51.32 PM

[1] – ULA has actually only existed since 2006, but the parent companies – Lockheed Martin and Boeing – have a long-standing relationship with the U.S. Air Force. The current suite of ULA rockets are part of the Air Force’s Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle Program (EELV) which was started in the mid 1990’s.

2014 in review – Part I

You can read last year’s 2013 in review posts for context here: Part I and Part II.

Part I – NASA

When trying to summarize a year for any topic, be it world events, politics, or some niche area, like spaceflight, it is tempting to try to pick out one or two big events that were the highlight of the year. I expect the people at NASA headquarters will want to focus especially on the successful first mission of the new Orion capsule. That unmanned mission, called EFT-1, went off without a hitch in early December and was promoted by NASA as a “first step” on our new journey to Mars. Certainly, the Orion (and the SLS rocket to fly it) is a significant enough portion of NASA’s budget ($3.1 out of $17.6 billion for FY 2014) to make some noise about. But it is obviously not the only thing the agency is doing.

NASA lives in a tough public relations environment in which its greatest area of success and stability – robotic planetary exploration – doesn’t receive the same level of attention as its manned exploration programs, which are more often in flux. In 2013, NASA launched a very expensive new Mars orbiter, MAVEN, which entered Mars orbit right on schedule. MAVEN is an interesting science mission, but it is hard to explain to the public in an easy sound bite why the “Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN” mission is exciting. MAVEN also serves a very important secondary role of being a replacement relay satellite for the active Mars rovers Curiosity and Opportunity. In fact, the solar system is full of continuing stories of NASA’s success in planetary exploration – sometimes referred to as NASA’s “crown jewel”: three Mars orbiters, two rovers on Mars, New Horizons on the way to Pluto, Cassini at Saturn, Dawn on the way to Vesta, Juno on the way to Jupiter, and I’ve certainly left something out.

The problem with ongoing planetary missions is that they move slowly. They don’t have the sex appeal that news channels can include on the morning edition. It seems to me that there are only a few distinct things that get a space story coverage on the national news, and none of them are “Mars rover continues to rove”. The hooks as I see them are: rocket launch, astronauts, political relevance, failure, or the specter of failure (like a daring Mars landing). So which planetary missions had a hook this year? Well, none, really. No major missions launched, no major missions failed in a newsworthy way, and no NASA missions had a daring EDL (Entry, Descent, and Landing) sequence to capture the public’s attention. The European Space Agency’s landing on comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko got widespread media coverage specifically because of that hook about the specter of failure. Google even featured Philae in at least one of their “doodles” and in a national TV ad run on New Year’s Eve.

The story of the year was clearly ESA’s Rosetta/Philae mission. Robotic planetary exploration, NASA’s crown jewel, did not shine in 2014, and was in fact overshadowed by the plucky yet doomed Philae lander. So, although NASA had a lucky 13 planetary missions in operation during 2014, the biggest success of the year for the agency really did come late in the year with the EFT-1 flight of Orion. Thus, you would expect that NASA’s own PR would focus on this hugely expensive and visible part of their plans. But looking at their own year-end summaries, like the “This Year At NASA” video, Orion, SLS, and the future of manned spaceflight are not given the importance we would expect.

In fact, the video opens by mentioning “…the next giant leap in space exploration: sending astronauts to Mars” but only mentions development of certain “game-changing technologies” in that context, and briefly mentions that NASA’s plans “…could include a human mission in the 2020s to an asteroid…” SLS and Orion are mentioned in a different part of the video. Here in this short 6-minute 2014 summary video, we can see why coverage of the EFT-1 mission was by-and-large fleeting. NASA PR material does not make it clear what the long-term plan is. Astronauts could visit an asteroid? Why don’t we know where we are going yet? These are reasonable questions for the public to be asking. Americans probably wouldn’t mind if the first mission to Mars is 15 to 20 years away if you tell them specifically what needs to be done to reach that goal. Imagine a series of milestones like we had for Apollo – the Gemini program missions and then the early Apollo missions each had a purpose, a technology or technique to test out, that had to be done before a landing could be attempted. 2014 was a year of opportunity for NASA to lay out that plan for people as EFT-1 approached. Instead, we get two rather vague graphics (one released in April, and the other in December), which do not do much to outline specific milestones.

“Path to Mars” from April 2014 by NASA

“Journey to Mars” from December 2014 by NASA

With vagueness, very long timelines, and no second Orion mission for 3 years, it is understandable that the public did not latch on to the EFT-1 story in 2014. Before we blame “kids these days”, the state of education, or America’s preoccupation with reality TV and celebrities, I think in some ways 2014 also proved that people do in fact care about space exploration.

Perhaps I need to convince you. Go watch that Google TV spot again. It ends with a rather long sequence highlighting the success of Philae, voiced over by Bill Nye. The movie Interstellar was a financial success this year, hot on the heels of 2013’s Gravity. Most tellingly, in my opinion, is how the public responds to real stories and images of spaceflight from the astronauts onboard the ISS.

The ISS was home to many prolific tweeters in 2014, including Mike Hopkins, Richard Mastracchio, Koichi Wakata, Reid Wiseman, Alex Gerst, Terry Virts, and Samantha Cristoforetti (Virts and Cristoforetti are in space at the time of this writing). Commander Steve Swanson didn’t tweet, but posted lots of pictures on the ISS Instagram feed – more recent crews have kept up the postings there. And then during Expedition 40, the ISS crew joined Vine, with accounts from Reid Wiseman, Terry Virts, and “InsideISS” popping up. Most posts from astronauts average several hundred retweets, favorites, or comments per post, but often they reach several thousand. A tweet of a few shots of a moonset from ISS on Virts’ twitter feed from December 22nd has been retweeted 3,571 times.

The average person loves space exploration and the idea of living in space. What people don’t love is talking about space policy. The average person doesn’t want to know the political or technical nuances of this or that NASA budget or plan. I know this from personal experience talking about my job. What people want to know is where we are going, that we have a solid plan to get there, and that there’s a chance that their kid who wants to be an astronaut could be involved in those awesome plans. Americans expect NASA and its employees to be brilliant, driven, motivated, and no nonsense – the qualities of all of the characters in the movie Apollo 13. The “failure is not an option” mythos translates directly to an expectation that NASA knows what it’s doing and where it’s going. When NASA’s own PR says things like we could be going to an asteroid in a few years, not that we will, most people would understandably be thinking that they’ll check back in when NASA has its plans figured out.

I don’t know what the most common answer would be if you asked people on the street what important things happened for NASA in 2014, but I have some guesses. A lot of people may think that Rosetta/Philae was a NASA mission and mention that. Others will remember the “NASA rocket” that blew up, by which they would be referring to the Orbital Sciences’ Antares rocket that failed shortly after launch (technically not a NASA failure, but it’s unfair to expect the layman to understand the difference). What would not likely be on the list is the official PR line about EFT-1: that NASA launched the first in a series of missions to take the human race to Mars. The general feeling towards NASA at the end of 2014 is likely more along the lines of “has plans to do some awesome stuff in 10 or 20 years that I’ll get excited about then.”

What answers would you get if you asked the same question of congress people and staffers on Capitol Hill? They are well aware of the SLS/Orion program because of its large cost – in the Fiscal Year 2015 budget that was approved in December, a big part of the $500 million increase over last year’s budget went to that project. A total of about $2 billion will be spent on SLS/Orion in 2015. Unfortunately, the willingness to increase NASA’s budget likely has more factors than a commitment to a long-term Path to Mars. More immediate issues, like the ripple effects of growing geopolitical tensions between the US and Russia, were likely on politicians minds when they approved the Cromnibus spending bill last month. The Crimea crisis in February set the tone for most discussion about NASA inside the Beltway during 2014: NASA can’t launch its own astronauts to space. Most of all, 2014 was a reminder of that fact. The good news is that with the award of the CCtCAP contract to Boeing and SpaceX and the launch of EFT-1, 2014 had a lot of bright points; it showed concrete evidence that NASA is working on closing the gap.

So how will 2014 be remembered? With an increased budget, an almost flawless Orion test flight, and lots of “rovers continuing to rove”, NASA has reasons to be optimistic going into 2015. However, 2014 was the middle year in the gap that hopefully will end in 2017 with a crewed test flight of an American spacecraft. The explosion of an ISS resupply rocket in October combined with mostly vague plans for future human spaceflight has left the public unconvinced that NASA is where their love of space should be focused right now. NASA faces a real chance of being further marginalized and replaced in the public’s psyche by “New Space”, but it all depends on what certain key players, such as SpaceX and Bigelow can achieve in the coming year.

In part 2 of my year in review, I will recap how the US sanctions on Russia related to Ukraine affected various aspects of the US space sector, a perfect opportunity for Elon Musk to steal the public’s focus away from NASA.

2014 Link Dump

The past year was one of ups and downs in the space sector. The year started with a lot of successes that are lost in the shadows of the bigger stories late in the year, including successful launches for Orbital Sciences and SpaceX, China’s Yutu rover on the moon, NASA’s LADEE ending a successful mission, and the debut of new live streaming HD camera views from the ISS, among other stories.

The space sector’s focus quickly shifted when Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in February, which kicked off a ripple effect involving the Russian RD-180 engines, used to launch American Department of Defense assets. The question of whether the US launch sector is too reliant on Russian rocket engines is still playing a huge role in space policy almost a year later. I would go so far as to say the RD-180 story was the start of a year dominated by a focus on launch vehicles, rather than actual ongoing missions.

That dominance came to a head at the end of 2014 with the loss of an Orbital Sciences’ Antares rocket and the Virgin Galactic SpaceShipTwo, just days apart. In fact, all 2014 summaries seem to be dominated by the last 10 weeks of the year. There were several triumphs late in the year, such as ESA’s Rosetta/Philae mission and NASA’s EFT-1 demonstration. However, the vehicle losses were bigger stories (as negative stories often are) and likely have bigger implications for the future. The contrast of the positive and negative events towards the end of the year are a microcosm of how the year feels to me: great ambitions underscored by sobering reality.

I have a series of posts planned to sum up the year in space with a bit of commentary. In particular, it is interesting to put 2014 into context by following the themes that I used when summing up 2013 – they seem to have continued about the same for the last 12 months; the mood continues to be one of cautious anticipation. I’m sure you are waiting for my commentary with bated breath (yeah, right). While you wait, enjoy some high level summaries and top lists from around the internet.

Happy New Year!

Wikipedia Stats

The “2014 in Spaceflight” article is fairly comprehensive at capturing all of the launches of the year. 2014 saw 92 launches (with one from China earlier today), outdoing the last few years by at least several launches. 2014 is the only year I am aware of to hit the 90s as far as number of launches. Update: According to Spaceflight Now, the last time more than 90 launches occurred in a year was in 1992, with 93.

On the ISS, several cosmonauts on the list of most total time in space added to their totals this year, such as Tyurin at 13 and Kotov at 14. Japan’s Koichi Wakata commanded Expedition 39 to solidify his spot as one of the few non-Russian or Americans on the list at 35. Richard Mastracchio snuck into the last spot at number 50 on the Wikipedia list during Expedition 39 (but he is going to get bumped next year by Scott Kelly and possibly others).

Speaking of Mastracchio, he did 3 spacewalks while on ISS at the end of 2013 and early 2014. The EVAs totaled 14 hours, bringing his lifetime total above 53 hours and bringing him way up to number 5 on the list of most total EVA time. There were 7 total spacewalks on ISS in 2014. However, none of the other spacewalkers from this year made the Wikipedia list of top 30 for time.

Top Space Stories of 2014

The following outlets have a rundown of the biggest things that happened this year. Usually with a paragraph or two of detail on each topic.

Universe Today

AmericaSpace

Spaceflight Now

Space.com

Scientific American

Here are some video summaries from the eyes of the space agencies themselves. First, NASA’s “this year @NASA” video.

The European Space Agency also produced a short summary video.

Update: and here is SpaceX’s own summary of their year.

Other Top Lists

Universe Today’s top space photos of 2014.

Space.com’s top astronomy stories of 2014.

While not space-related, The Big Picture’s year in pictures photo essay is a must read. Here are parts one, two, and three.

EarthSky has the top 10 new species of 2014.

Jeff Master’s at the Wunderground has the top 10 weather stories and top 10 weather videos of 2014.

Top 25 images of Earth from space (all DigitalGlobe).

Scientific American’s top science stories of 2014.

Update: Top space images of the year from Reuters.

Weekly Links

Down to Earth

I am continually puzzled by large-scale aerospace projects using crowdfunding sites. In the latest installment, a company called Bristol Spaceplane (who have apparently been around at least since the Ansari X Prize days) is looking for 10,000 GBP (that’s about 15,500 USD) to build a remote controlled scale model of their spaceplane concept (via Parabolic Arc). How they intend to turn $15,000 of crowdfunding into a multi-billion dollar spaceplane project is not mentioned on their fundraising page.

SpaceX has picked up a Qatari telecommunications launch for 2016, adding to their already packed manifest. The Falcon 9 launch rate will be one of the big stories to follow in 2015. SpaceX is still on track for a January 6th launch to resupply the ISS.

In some continued minor fallout from the Virgin Galactic accident earlier this year, a company called Virool (I hadn’t heard of them) has changed up the prize in a previous contest: instead of winning a SpaceShipTwo ticket, the prize is now just a ride on a “vomit comet” style airplane.

In Orbit

In a quick flurry of launches, the Russian space program lofted 3 successful missions to end 2014 on a very positive note last week. The launches were all unmanned and unrelated to the ISS program. First, on December 23rd, the first flight of the new Angara rocket put a “dummy payload” into geosynchronous orbit.

Next, on December 26th, a Soyuz rocket put the Resurs P2 Earth observing satellite into orbit.

Lastly, on December 28th, a Proton rocket launched a European communication satellite to geosynchronous orbit. This was the 4th successful Proton launch since the failure in May. Proton is notorious for failures (one failure a year since 2010), and is intended to be replaced by the new Angara rocket.

Up on the ISS, the crew celebrated Christmas last week by putting out cookies for Santa Claus and exchanging presents. Astronaut Terry Virts shared their celebration with a few pictures on Twitter.

Out There

A new study with the Hubble Space Telescope has discovered a previously unknown “dwarf spheroidal” galaxy only 10 million light years from our galaxy. These types of small galaxies filled with older stars are expected to help astronomers improve models of star formation. The new galaxy is in our “Local Group” and is called KKs3. Hopefully someone at the IAU can come up with something more catchy.

Back in 2013, when Kepler’s second of four reaction wheels failed, it looked like the space telescopes science days were over. However, earlier this year the mission was relaunched as “K2″. The new mission uses the two remaining reaction wheels and solar wind pressure to keep the spacecraft pointed accurately enough to do science. The pointing is not as accurate as the original mission, but the first exoplanet discovery of the new mission proves that Kepler is not dead! Kepler found HIP 116454b, which is a small planet 2.5 Earth diameters in size.

Weekly Links

The two weeks since my last “links” post have been very busy with mostly good news. The best news being a number of successful rocket launches (two of them space exploration related), helping to make up for the bad taste in everyone’s mouth from the loss of the Antares rocket back in October. I tried counting how many rockets have launched from Earth this year using this launch log at Spaceflight Now, but its so many that I decided to go with the highly scientific “a lot”.

Down to Earth

Let’s quickly get a few boring but important things out of the way. We’ve got a couple of space budget updates from around the world.

First, economic sanctions from the EU on Russia may make it hard for Roscosmos to live up to their current ambitions.

At the European Space Agency ministerial meeting, a few key decisions were made. First they agreed to start development on the new Ariane 6 rocket, which will be a direct competitor with a few American made launchers including those from SpaceX. The Ariane 6 will replace the current Ariane 5, which launches European communications satellites, as well as the ATV to ISS. Secondly, ESA has only agreed to fund their commitment to ISS until 2017. It is assumed at their next meeting in 2016 the funding will be extended until at least 2020.

Back in the USA, Congress has passed a 2015 federal spending bill (in both houses) that includes a boost for NASA. Here is how the bill is summarized by The Planetary Society:

The total amount provided for NASA in this bill is a very solid $18.01 billion. That’s about $549 million above the President’s request for this year and $364 million above last year. This extra money supports increases to critical programs without raiding others.

The bill still needs to be signed by the President. Follow the link above for a more detailed breakdown. Parabolic Arc has the same data tabulated.

The spending bill also includes $20 million of federal funding to repair the Wallops Island launch pad that was damaged in the Orbital Antares rocket explosion in October. This is an interesting provision because $20 million was the initial assessment of what it would cost for all the repairs – meaning it will be completely paid for with federal money.

Speaking of Orbital Sciences, an announcement was made on December 9th that Orbital will be buying a couple of United Launch Alliance Atlas V rockets to fulfill their CRS contract with ISS. Orbital needs to buy someone else’s rocket to fill the gap while they figure out how to upgrade their Antares rocket to no longer use the AJ26 engine, which we can presume is implicated in the rocket failure. Even with the ULA deal, it seems the next launch of cargo aboard a Cygnus spacecraft won’t be until late 2015.

In Orbit

Of course, the big news, big enough to get coverage in all the major news outlets in one way or another, was the launch and successful recovery of NASA’s Orion spacecraft on its first unmanned test flight. The EFT-1 mission launched one day late, on Friday, December 5th, but other than that the flight pretty much went perfectly. There was a big of a glitch with the airbags at splashdown (they didn’t all deploy), which seems to be the only noteworthy problem. Here is a nice photo essay of the mission. Regardless of what you think of NASA’s current programs and roadmap for the future, congratulations are deserved by the whole team – especially my colleagues in Flight Operations – who worked on the mission. It is definitely worth getting excited for the next flight, EM-1, but it sure is a long way away.

While I don’t usually write about DoD launches, the Atlas V launch from Vandenberg Air Force Base on December 12th was notable because of the time of the launch. The Friday night launch, after sunset at 7:19 PM PST, lit up the sky all the way in Los Angeles, as evidenced by Twitter. It’s just too bad that people aren’t better informed so that the could have known they had an opportunity to see a rocket launch!

Aboard the International Space Station, the new Made In Space printer is still churning out test prints. Since I last wrote, they have created a jar with a screw-on lid and a ratchet handle for a socket wrench (although I’m not sure it actually “ratchets”?). Here’s ISS Commander Butch Wilmore showing off the “honey jar”:

Coming up on the ISS before Christmas, the next SpaceX Dragon cargo resupply will be launching this Friday, December 19th. Rendezvous will be on Sunday, December 21st, sometime in the morning. Here’s some details about press conferences and NASA TV coverage.

Lastly, if you want to keep up with what’s going on on the space station, you should be following Terry Virts and Samantha Cristoforetti on Twitter. Cristoforetti is also active on Google+ where she posts logbook updates. If you want details about specifically what science the astronauts are up to, AmericaSpace has a nice week recap.

Around the Solar System

As usual, there is a lot of activity all over the solar system, since humanity seems to have spacecraft everywhere! Unfortunately, that won’t last forever. In the first weeks (or months if we are lucky) of 2015 we will lose both our only active spacecraft at Mercury, NASA’s MESSENGER, and our only active spacecraft at Venus, ESA’s Venus Express. Both spacecraft are running low on fuel. MESSENGER may be able to do another boost in January to keep it from crashing until the Spring, but Venus Express will not be so lucky.

Back to some good news: on December 3rd, JAXA (that’s the Japanese space agency) launched the Hayabusa-2 probe. Hayabusa-2 is a follow-on mission to the successful Hayabusa sample return mission that visited asteroid Itokawa. Check out the launch replay below.

With all these great launches, we are looking to finish out 2014 right, especially if SpaceX gets Dragon to the ISS next weekend.

Elsewhere in the solar system, the Mars rovers have been quietly carrying on their missions. Opportunity is still exploring the rim of the large Endeavour crater, despite some flash memory problems with the rover. Opportunity recently passed 41 kilometers on the odometer and will hit 11 years on Mars in 2015. On the other side of the red planet, Curiosity is busy looking at rock sediments at Mount Sharp. NASA announced earlier this month that Curiosity has discovered that Gale Crater, which contains the central peak of Mount Sharp, once contained a lake – meaning standing water. This is significant in that it means conditions on ancient Mars were warm enough, and had sufficient atmospheric pressure, to maintain a more permanent water cycle.

Speaking of water, Rosetta results recently released by ESA show that the isotope of water found on comet 67P does not match the isotope found on Earth. This means that if Earth’s water did come from comets, it was not the same kind of comet at 67P.

Because it’s Cool

And of course I need to share this awesome video.